Every year I like to put out one mock draft before the start of free agency and the NFL Combine. All of the selections are based on team needs from past season performance and potential personnel losses in free agency. All of the player rankings are based on Senior Bowl performances and collegiate careers.
Defense and Offensive Live dominate the first mock of the off-season. I've a got a few reaches and weird picks in there...Enjoy!
1. St. Louis Rams – Ndamukong Suh, DT, Nebraska
Defensive Tackle and Quarterback are the Rams two biggest needs. I’m having trouble seeing Jimmy Clausen or Sam Bradford here, so Suh is the best choice for the defensive-minded Steve Spagnuolo. The Rams ranked in the bottom six of rushing defense last year giving up over 2200 yards on the ground. Suh is the most instinctive and disruptive run-stopper in this year’s draft class and some scouts say he is the one of the safest and best defensive tackle prospects they’ve seen in years.
2. Detroit Lions – Gerald McCoy, DT, Oklahoma
McCoy is a perfect fit for Detroit. Not only are the Lions extremely thin at defensive tackle, they also ranked near the bottom in sack production last year with only 26. McCoy is easily the best interior pass rusher in this year’s class and could fortify a very weak defensive middle for the Lions.
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Derrick Morgan, DE, Georgia Tech
With the two top defensive prospects off the board, the Buccaneers have the first tough decision to make in this year’s draft. Derrick Morgan may seem like a reach this early but the number three pick is too early for a safety like Eric Berry or OT’s Anthony Davis and Russell Okung. Derrick Morgan is the most complete defensive end in this year’s class and can really help a Tampa Bay defense who were dead last against the run and only notched 28 sacks last season. Tyson Jackson was last year’s surprise pick in the top 5 and Derrick Morgan is this year’s.
4. Washington Redskins – Sam Bradford, QB, Oklahoma
Mike Shanahan is a quarterback-minded coach and Bradford is the best quarterback in this year’s class. Shanahan will like to start his new era with a hand-picked franchise QB. It looks like the Redskins are going to hold on to incumbent starter Jason Campbell for at least one more season, but like Shanahan did with Jake Plummer and Jay Cutler in Denver, if Campbell struggles he will pull the plug and get Bradford experience. Bradford does concern some scouts but his accuracy, good release, game management, and resume should warrant a top 5 selection.
5. Kansas City Chiefs – Russell Okung, OT, Oklahoma State
The Chiefs can really use a playmaker in their defensive backfield and with Eric Berry on the board this is a very difficult decision. However, the Chiefs were horrible in pass protection last year giving up 45 sacks and with a makeshift offensive line, an athletic offensive tackle to protect Matt Cassel’s blindside should always win out. Okung is great in pass protection and should allow Brandon Albert to move to RT or OG. Eric Berry would be a great selection and would also fill a huge need, but a franchise left tackle is more valuable.
6. Seattle Seahawks – Jimmy Clausen, QB, Notre Dame
With OT Anthony Davis and DE Jason Pierre-Paul on the board, selecting a QB here may seem like a reach. I think Pete Carroll will make a splash with his first pick and fill a need with his second pick in the first round. Offensive tackle is deep in this draft and the Seahawks can address Walter Jones’s replacement at pick 14. Jimmy Clausen comes from a pro-style offense and has some familiarity with Pete Carroll. Matt Hasselbeck may have a year or two left in Seattle and would be a great mentor for Clausen.
7. Cleveland Browns – Eric Berry, S, Tennessee
The Browns were abysmal in pass defense last season and are lucky to have Eric Berry slip through the cracks to them. Berry is being compared to Ed Reed and is a great playmaker. While CB Joe Haden would be a great selection for the secondary as well, Brandon McDonald and Eric Wright are serviceable cornerbacks and should play better with a good safety behind them.
8. Oakland Raiders – Jason Pierre-Paul, DE, South Florida
Pass defense and pass rush isn’t a huge need for the Raiders, but Pierre-Paul is one of this year’s fastest rising prospects and he should have a great showing at the Combine. After trading Derrick Burgess a year ago, the Raiders would love the opportunity to draft and coach a potentially great pass-rusher. Pierre-Paul has a great size for a pass-rushing defensive end and fits the Raiders’ 4-3 scheme perfectly.
9. Buffalo Bills – Anthony Davis, OT, Rutgers
I really think that Anthony Davis was the guy that the Bills will be targeting come April and in this scenario, the Bills got their guy. Another fast-rising prospect, Davis is a strong candidate to help that young offensive line for years to come in Buffalo. The Bills had trouble keeping the QB off the turf last year giving up 46 sacks. Davis is a physically gifted and athletic prospect with tremendous upside that can really help both the passing and rushing games for the Bills.
10. Jacksonville Jaguars – Joe Haden, CB, Florida
Cornerback is probably not the Jaguar’s biggest need, but the Jags definitely struggled in pass defense last year and when you have to play against the Texans and Colts passing offenses four times a season, you need as many corners as possible. Last season, Rashean Mathis struggled with injuries and the rest of the secondary was abysmal. Joe Haden is the best cornerback in this year’s class and many scouts expect him to become a great cover corner at the next level.
11. Denver Broncos (from Chicago) – Dez Bryant, WR, Oklahoma State
If Brandon Marshall gets traded this off-season, the Broncos will be extremely thin at WR. Even if Marshall comes back next year, the Broncos’ WR corps is aging and could use some playmaking potential. While Rolando McClain would be a nice fit in the 3-4 alongside DJ Williams, Bryant can inject some excitement and big-play potential for the Broncos offense.
12. Miami Dolphins – Rolando McClain, ILB, Alabama
While NT, FS, and WR may be bigger needs, Bill Parcells won’t let the best linebacker in this year’s class get away from him. The Dolphins have needed a big-play inside linebacker for years and McClain can start right away. He is strong against the run and would be an immediate upgrade over aging veteran Akin Ayodele.
13. San Francisco 49ers – Trent Williams, OT, Oklahoma
The 49ers are all about running the football and Trent Williams definitely provides some mean run-blocking ability. He may need to bulk up a bit to play the right tackle position, but he should be able to come in and immediately compete for the starting right tackle position. This is an area of need for the 49ers and it fortifies the offenses’ run-first mentality. Williams’ ability to run block gives him the edge over OT Bryan Bulaga.
14. Seattle Seahawks (from Denver) – Bryan Bulaga, OT, Iowa
Bryan Bulaga is not that far behind the top offensive linemen in this year’s class. A few injury concerns may scare some NFL scouts but he is a great prospect who really knows how to play along an offensive line. He can play multiple offensive line positions and could provide depth if Walter Jones decides to return. Bulaga plays smart and can really develop into a balanced OT at the next level.
15. New York Giants – Brian Price, DT, UCLA
The Giants defensive line (and defense in general) extremely underperformed last season. The defensive line may go through a bit of an overhaul this offseason and bringing in some youth at the defensive tackle position will help with depth and the rotation. Price is an active and strong prospect who can really penetrate and cause problems for the opposing offensive line.
16. San Francisco 49ers (from Carolina) – Earl Thomas, S, Texas
The 49ers safeties struggled in coverage last season and Earl Thomas can immediately contribute in Nickel and Dime packages. Incumbent starter Dashon Goldson is a big hitter and is good in run-support but has problems in coverage. Earl Thomas can possibly even play a little corner which would help a thin cornerback unit in San Francisco.
17. Tennessee Titans – Carlos Dunlap, DE, Florida
The Titans defensive line has been going through some dramatic changes the past two off-seasons. Last year, it was the lost of Albert Haynesworth; this year the Titans may lose both DE Kyle Vanden Bosch and DE Jevon Kearse. Dunlap is a two way defensive end who can rush the passer and play against the run. At 6’5 and 290 pounds, Dunlap is a freakishly good athlete and can really help the Titans defensive line immediately. Dunlap could have been a top 5 pick but some off-the-field issues have led to his fall.
18. Pittsburgh Steelers – Kareem Jackson, CB, Alabama
I think the Steelers will franchise NT Casey Hampton so they can address other areas with this pick. The Steelers need some depth in the secondary and Kareem Jackson can provide that depth. Competition is big for who will be the second cornerback taken in this year’s draft. The Steelers may say good bye to longtime starter Deshea Townsend and Kareem Jackson played in a similar defensive system in Alabama. Jackson is good in coverage and can help out in run-support.
19. Atlanta Falcons – Everson Griffen, DE, Southern California
The Falcons DE starters John Abraham and Jamaal Anderson combined for just 6 sacks last season. Griffen is an under-the-radar prospect in this year’s class but has some great pass-rushing skills. At 6-3, 280 he has the size to one day become an every down defensive end at the next level.
20. Houston Texans – CJ Spiller, RB, Clemson
Spiller is a perfect fit for the Texans zone-blocking rushing game. He is a more natural runner than Steve Slaton and can catch the ball out of the backfield. His homerun threat is great for that Houston offense. He also creates value in the return game. Spiller is the best running back in this year’s class and would be a great addition in Houston.
21. Cincinnati Bengals – Mike Iupati, OG, Idaho
Jermaine Gresham or a WR is a strong possibility here, but with Bobbie Williams possibly leaving in free agency the Bengals can look to the draft for his potential replacement. Iupati impressed scouts at the Senior Bowl and has played his way to the top interior lineman in this year’s class. Iupati can immediately help the run game. With questions about the remaining safeties, WRs, and TEs Iupati is a safe selection that fills a need.
22. New England Patriots – Sergio Kindle, OLB/DE, Texas
Linebackers Adalius Thomas, Derrick Burgess, and Tully Banta-Cain may all be gone by the start of next season. New England desperately needs youth at the 3-4 outside linebacker position. Sergio Kindle should be able to put himself at the top of that list with good workouts. If Kindle disappoints, I look for Brandon Graham (OLB – Michigan) to take this spot. Kindle is more of a playmaker and can definitely inject energy to that New England linebacker corps that looked old and struggled last year.
23. Green Bay Packers – Bruce Campbell, OT, Maryland
Green Bay needs help in three main areas: the offensive tackle position, youth in the secondary, and depth on the edge. The inability to keep Aaron Rodgers upright last season (51 sacks allowed) has to be the Packers’ biggest concern especially with starters Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher aging and possibly departing in free agency. Bruce Campbell leads the second tier of offensive tackles in this class and shows potential to be a good blind side protector.
24. Philadelphia Eagles – Taylor Mays, S, Southern California
With Sean Jones departing in free agency and safety being a need on a team that doesn’t have many, the Eagles can definitely try and find lightning in a bottle with the Mays selection. Mays is a physical marvel and a freakishly good athlete. His size and speed make him an ideal strong safety in the Eagles blitz-happy defense. He does struggle in pass protection, but Mays is worth the risk at this point in the draft. Some scouts felt that if Mays had come out last season, he would have been a top-10 selection.
25. Baltimore Ravens – Demaryius Thomas, WR, Georgia Tech
The Ravens have been making it known that they plan to add weapons for Joe Flacco this off-season. Thomas has been seeing his stock rising as of late and after the combine, I think he will solidify a first round selection. No one can rival his size and physicality on the outside. At 6’3, 230 lbs, Thomas can develop into the ideal deep, big play threat that Baltimore has been looking for.
26. Arizona Cardinals – Brandon Graham, OLB/DE, Michigan
Graham is another fast riser in this year’s class. With an extremely productive career and great workouts, Graham should definitely move into the mid to late first round range. The Cardinals may see three starting linebackers leave in free agency and Graham could fill one of those voids. He can play the run effectively from the OLB/DE position making him a three down defender.
27. Dallas Cowboys – Jared Odrick, DL, Penn State
Dallas has a great luxury in that they don’t have many needs. Most of their needs are for depth. While S Nate Allen from South Florida could be a possibility here, I want to wait to see Allen’s workouts before anointing him a first round selection. Jared Odrick has the frame to play DE in Dallas’ 3-4 scheme and with Marcus Spears a RFA and not that much depth behind the starters, the Cowboys can draft for the future with Odrick.
28. San Diego Chargers – Dan Williams, DT, Tennessee
The Chargers do not have many pressing needs outside of running back. Long-time starting nose tackle Jamal Williams has struggled with injuries recently and isn’t getting much younger. Dan Williams has the potential to develop into a starting NT at the next level. His play against the run is superb and his combine workout should provide insight into his strength. The Chargers can get great value at running back via free agency or in later rounds.
29. New York Jets – Kyle Wilson, CB, Boise State
The Jets are in a position to draft Wilson in the hopes of developing him to play opposite of Darrelle Revis. Lito Sheppard didn’t play as well as expected this past season and behind Revis and Sheppard, there isn’t a whole lot of quality. Peyton Manning continued to target the corner opposite of Revis in the playoffs and Rex Ryan will be looking to fix the cornerback situation which is extremely important in that blitz-happy defense.
30. Minnesota Vikings – Patrick Robinson, CB, Florida State
With Antoine Winfield getting older, Benny Sapp departing in free agency and Cedric Griffin coming off an injury the Vikings need some depth at cornerback. Patrick Robinson should perform well in the combine and one of the small needs the Vikings have going into next season. QB Colt McCoy is a possibility as well.
31. Indianapolis Colts – Lamarr Houston, DT, Texas
The Colts have been in need of a defensive tackle for a while. Lamarr Houston is perfect for the Colts defensive scheme. He is a penetrating presence who can disrupt the run in the backfield. He can also help Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis improving that dominating pass rush.
32. New Orleans Saints – Navorro Bowman, OLB, Penn State
The Saints will have a huge need at outside linebacker if incumbent starters Scott Shanle and Scott Fujita both leave in free agency. The Saints will continue to look to blitz all day every day and Bowman shows the speed on the outside to penetrate and be a great addition to that aggressive defense.
Note: Coin flips will decide which teams pick 10th, 16th, and 19th. The Bears, Broncos and Panthers traded away first-round picks.
Wednesday, February 17, 2010
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